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美联储主席重申渐进加息策略

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年11月19日 01:30:51
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(原)(标)(题)(:全)(球)(央)(行)(行)(长)(会)(议)(落)(幕)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(重)(申)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(策)(略)(
为)(期)(三)(天)(的)(全)(球)(央)(行)(行)(长)(会)(议)(日)(前)(在)(美)(国)(怀)(俄)(明)(州)(杰)(克)(逊)(谷)(地)(结)(束)(。在)(今)(年)(以)(“转)(型)(中)(的)(市)(场)(结)(构)(及)(其)(对)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(影)(响)(”为)(主)(题)(的)(年)(会)(上)(,美)(国)(联)(邦)(储)(备)(委)(员)(会)((美)(联)(储)()主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(表)(示)(,将)(继)(续)(坚)(持)(渐)(进)(的)(加)(息)(节)(奏)(以)(支)(持)(美)(国)(经)(济)(增)(长)(和)(防)(范)(风)(险)(,同)(时)(警)(告)(要)(对)(未)(来)(的)(经)(济)(危)(机)(保)(持)(警)(惕)(。
重)(申)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(政)(策)(路)(径)(
这)(是)(鲍)(威)(尔)(出)(任)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(以)(来)(,首)(次)(在)(全)(球)(央)(行)(年)(会)(上)(发)(表)(讲)(话)(,因)(此)(备)(受)(市)(场)(关)(注)(。
鲍)(威)(尔)(在)(本)(次)(会)(议)(上)(说)(,美)(联)(储)(在)(加)(息)(时)(总)(是)(面)(临)(两)(大)(风)(险)(:加)(息)(过)(快)(将)(不)(必)(要)(地)(缩)(短)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(,加)(息)(太)(慢)(则)(有)(引)(发)(经)(济)(过)(热)(的)(风)(险)(。他)(认)(为)(,美)(联)(储)(坚)(持)(当)(前)(渐)(进)(的)(加)(息)(节)(奏)(是)(应)(对)(这)(两)(类)(风)(险)(的)(有)(效)(方)(式)(。
鲍)(威)(尔)(还)(表)(示)(,尽)(管)(近)(期)(美)(国)(通)(胀)(率)(已)(接)(近)(2%的)(目)(标)(,但)(目)(前)(没)(有)(确)(切)(迹)(象)(显)(示)(通)(胀)(率)(将)(加)(速)(上)(升)(超)(过)(2%或)(者)(引)(发)(经)(济)(过)(热)(,这)(说)(明)(美)(联)(储)(采)(取)(的)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(策)(略)(取)(得)(了)(成)(效)(。如)(果)(美)(国)(家)(庭)(收)(入)(和)(就)(业)(继)(续)(强)(劲)(增)(长)(,美)(联)(储)(进)(一)(步)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(可)(能)(是)(合)(适)(的)(。
华)(尔)(街)(分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(,鲍)(威)(尔)(有)(关)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(的)(表)(态)(,实)(际)(上)(是)(对)(此)(前)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(批)(评)(加)(息)(妨)(碍)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(一)(种)(回)(应)(,但)(“鲍)(威)(尔)(显)(然)(不)(希)(望)(与)(总)(统)(在)(社)(交)(媒)(体)(上)(就)(此)(展)(开)(一)(场)(舌)(战)(”。
特)(朗)(普)(今)(年)(以)(来)(不)(止)(一)(次)(批)(评)(美)(联)(储)(的)(加)(息)(举)(措)(。据)(报)(道)(,在)(17日)(的)(一)(场)(筹)(款)(活)(动)(上)(,根)(据)(美)(国)(媒)(体)(援)(引)(与)(会)(者)(的)(言)(论)(,特)(朗)(普)(宣)(称)(期)(待)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(成)(为)(一)(个)(喜)(欢)(“廉)(价)(美)(元)(”的)(人)(。20日)(,特)(朗)(普)(在)(相)(关)(媒)(体)(的)(一)(场)(访)(谈)(中)(重)(申)(他)(的)(批)(评)(立)(场)(,称)(对)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(的)(举)(措)(“不)(感)(到)(兴)(奋)(”。
但)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(是)(鲍)(威)(尔)(今)(年)(出)(任)(美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(后)(一)(直)(秉)(承)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(路)(线)(,并)(多)(次)(在)(公)(开)(场)(合)(为)(此)(辩)(护)(,同)(时)(他)(还)(承)(诺)(捍)(卫)(央)(行)(政)(策)(的)(独)(立)(性)(。在)(鲍)(威)(尔)(看)(来)(,美)(联)(储)(目)(前)(将)(继)(续)(加)(息)(,直)(到)(新)(的)(经)(济)(数)(据)(表)(明)(这)(一)(行)(动)(应)(该)(被)(逆)(转)(或)(加)(快)(行)(动)(。“当)(不)(确)(定)(你)(的)(行)(动)(带)(来)(的)(影)(响)(时)(,应)(该)(谨)(慎)(行)(事)(。”鲍)(威)(尔)(说)(。
自)(美)(联)(储)(货)(币)(政)(策)(回)(归)(正)(常)(化)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(逐)(步)(靠)(近)(与)(美)(国)(经)(济)(稳)(健)(增)(长)(、实)(现)(物)(价)(稳)(定)(与)(充)(分)(就)(业)(两)(大)(政)(策)(目)(标)(相)(符)(的)(长)(期)(正)(常)(水)(平)(。这)(样)(的)(利)(率)(水)(平)(既)(不)(会)(对)(经)(济)(产)(生)(刺)(激)(作)(用)(,也)(不)(会)(抑)(制)(经)(济)(增)(长)(,而)(是)(保)(持)(恰)(到)(好)(处)(的)(中)(性)(,美)(联)(储)(官)(员)(称)(之)(为)(中)(性)(利)(率)(水)(平)(。目)(前)(美)(联)(储)(预)(计)(中)(性)(利)(率)(水)(平)(为)(2.8%到)(3%,到)(2019年)(底)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(预)(计)(将)(升)(至)(3.1%,这)(意)(味)(着)(到)(明)(年)(底)(美)(国)(短)(期)(利)(率)(将)(达)(到)(中)(性)(水)(平)(。
鲍)(威)(尔)(曾)(经)(指)(出)(,等)(利)(率)(升)(至)(中)(性)(水)(平)(后)(,美)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(将)(不)(再)(宽)(松)(,市)(场)(应)(为)(此)(做)(好)(准)(备)(。
下)(月)(加)(息)(预)(期)(升)(温)(
报)(道)(称)(,美)(联)(储)(于)(今)(年)(3月)(和)(6月)(分)(别)(加)(息)(,将)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(目)(标)(区)(间)(上)(调)(为)(1.75%至)(2%的)(水)(平)(。但)(在)(上)(次)(货)(币)(政)(策)(例)(会)(上)(,美)(联)(储)(维)(持)(基)(准)(利)(率)(不)(变)(。美)(联)(储)(在)(会)(议)(结)(束)(后)(发)(表)(声)(明)(,重)(申)(了)(6月)(对)(加)(息)(节)(奏)(的)(预)(期)(:预)(计)(进)(一)(步)(循)(序)(渐)(进)(加)(息)(,加)(息)(步)(伐)(将)(与)(经)(济)(活)(动)(持)(续)(扩)(张)(、就)(业)(市)(场)(环)(境)(强)(劲)(、接)(近)(对)(称)(性)(2%的)(中)(期)(通)(胀)(目)(标)(一)(致)(。
自)(2015年)(12月)(启)(动)(本)(轮)(加)(息)(周)(期)(以)(来)(,美)(联)(储)(已)(加)(息)(7次)(,并)(缩)(减)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(,以)(逐)(步)(退)(出)(金)(融)(危)(机)(后)(出)(台)(的)(超)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。
目)(前)(,外)(界)(普)(遍)(预)(计)(美)(联)(储)(将)(在)(今)(年)(9月)(进)(行)(年)(内)(的)(第)(三)(次)(加)(息)(,并)(倾)(向)(于)(在)(今)(年)(12月)(第)(四)(次)(加)(息)(。据)(报)(道)(,美)(国)(堪)(萨)(斯)(联)(储)(主)(席)(伊)(斯)(纳)(·乔)(治)(表)(示)(,只)(要)(美)(国)(经)(济)(继)(续)(逐)(步)(改)(善)(,支)(持)(今)(年)(再)(加)(息)(两)(次)(。媒)(体)(援)(引)(凯)(投)(国)(际)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(咨)(询)(公)(司)(首)(席)(美)(国)(经)(济)(学)(家)(保)(罗)(·阿)(什)(沃)(思)(针)(的)(话)(说)(:“美)(联)(储)(的)(又)(一)(次)(加)(息)(将)(于)(下)(个)(月)(来)(临)(。”
芝)(加)(哥)(商)(业)(交)(易)(所)(的)(“美)(联)(储)(观)(察)(工)(具)(”显)(示)(,目)(前)(美)(国)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(期)(货)(交)(易)(市)(场)(预)(计)(,今)(年)(9月)(,美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(至)(少)(25个)(基)(点)(的)(概)(率)(为)(96%。若)(每)(次)(加)(息)(25个)(基)(点)(,今)(年)(内)(美)(联)(储)(共)(计)(加)(息)(四)(次)(的)(概)(率)(为)(62.8%。
此)(外)(,美)(国)(全)(国)(商)(业)(经)(济)(协)(会)(日)(前)(发)(布)(了)(对)(251名)(经)(济)(学)(家)(的)(半)(年)(度)(经)(济)(政)(策)(调)(查)(报)(告)(。报)(告)(显)(示)(,对)(于)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,45%的)(受)(访)(者)(预)(计)(美)(联)(储)(今)(年)(内)(还)(将)(加)(息)(两)(次)(,约)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(受)(访)(者)(预)(计)(到)(2019年)(底)(美)(国)(基)(准)(利)(率)(将)(上)(调)(至)(3%。
从)(数)(据)(上)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(向)(好)(以)(及)(通)(胀)(走)(高)(,也)(支)(持)(美)(联)(储)(继)(续)(加)(息)(。根)(据)(美)(国)(商)(务)(部)(此)(前)(公)(布)(的)(首)(次)(预)(估)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(第)(二)(季)(度)(美)(国)(实)(际)(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)((GDP)按)(年)(率)(计)(算)(增)(长)(4.1%,高)(于)(第)(一)(季)(度)(的)(2.2%,但)(低)(于)(市)(场)(平)(均)(预)(期)(的)(4.2%。而)(美)(国)(劳)(工)(部)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,7月)(美)(国)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)(经)(季)(节)(调)(整)(后)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.2%,同)(比)(增)(长)(2.9%。扣)(除)(波)(动)(性)(较)(大)(的)(能)(源)(和)(食)(品)(价)(格)(后)(,当)(月)(核)(心)(消)(费)(价)(格)(指)(数)(环)(比)(增)(长)(0.2%,同)(比)(增)(长)(2.4%,创)(2008年)(9月)(以)(来)(最)(大)(涨)(幅)(。
为)(下)(次)(危)(机)(做)(好)(准)(备)(
展)(望)(未)(来)(,鲍)(威)(尔)(指)(出)(,目)(前)(美)(国)(经)(济)(仍)(面)(临)(多)(项)(长)(期)(结)(构)(性)(挑)(战)(:中)(低)(收)(入)(阶)(层)(实)(际)(工)(资)(数)(十)(年)(来)(增)(长)(缓)(慢)(;经)(济)(流)(动)(性)(下)(降)(至)(低)(于)(多)(数)(其)(他)(发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(的)(水)(平)(;随)(着)(退)(休)(人)(口)(比)(例)(上)(升)(,解)(决)(联)(邦)(政)(府)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(问)(题)(愈)(加)(紧)(迫)(。同)(时)(,目)(前)(很)(难)(判)(定)(美)(国)(经)(济)(何)(时)(或)(者)(能)(否)(摆)(脱)(最)(近)(十)(年)(来)(生)(产)(率)(低)(迷)(的)(状)(态)(。
西)(班)(牙)(《起)(义)(报)(》网)(站)(8月)(23日)(刊)(登)(题)(为)(《特)(朗)(普)(已)(经)(开)(启)(了)(美)(国)(新)(一)(轮)(经)(济)(危)(机)(》的)(文)(章)(。文)(章)(说)(,当)(今)(全)(球)(经)(济)(的)(动)(力)(非)(常)(脆)(弱)(和)(不)(稳)(定)(,并)(已)(受)(到)(美)(国)(政)(府)(政)(策)(的)(严)(重)(影)(响)(,而)(美)(国)(企)(业)(又)(因)(利)(润)(锐)(减)(而)(成)(为)(重)(灾)(区)(。一)(场)(新)(的)(危)(机)(正)(从)(美)(国)(开)(始)(,很)(有)(可)(能)(演)(变)(成)(新)(一)(轮)(的)(全)(球)(经)(济)(危)(机)(。
至)(于)(美)(国)(何)(时)(遭)(遇)(下)(一)(次)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(,美)(国)(NatWest资)(本)(公)(司)(战)(略)(部)(负)(责)(人)(约)(翰)(·布)(里)(格)(斯)(表)(示)(,人)(们)(对)(2019年)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(美)(国)(经)(济)(再)(次)(步)(入)(衰)(退)(的)(担)(忧)(正)(在)(增)(强)(,从)(内)(外)(部)(环)(境)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(失)(去)(动)(能)(的)(风)(险)(在)(逐)(渐)(上)(升)(。美)(国)(圣)(路)(易)(斯)(联)(邦)(储)(备)(银)(行)(行)(长)(布)(拉)(德)(23日)(称)(,相)(信)(明)(年)(经)(济)(增)(长)(会)(放)(缓)(,因)(此)(不)(希)(望)(今)(年)(再)(次)(加)(息)(,但)(他)(本)(人)(今)(年)(在)(美)(联)(储)(公)(开)(市)(场)(委)(员)(会)(中)(没)(有)(投)(票)(权)(。
全)(球)(最)(大)(对)(冲)(基)(金)(桥)(水)(创)(始)(人)(达)(里)(奥)(预)(计)(,今)(明)(两)(年)(美)(国)(经)(济)(应)(该)(不)(会)(衰)(退)(,但)(可)(能)(发)(生)(在)(下)(次)(美)(国)(大)(选)(之)(前)(。在)(他)(看)(来)(,摆)(在)(美)(国)(经)(济)(面)(前)(的)(重)(大)(问)(题)(之)(一)(,就)(是)(美)(国)(国)(内)(悬)(殊)(的)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(将)(加)(重)(阶)(层)(之)(间)(的)(紧)(张)(情)(绪)(,经)(济)(衰)(退)(之)(下)(社)(会)(层)(面)(和)(政)(治)(层)(面)(都)(将)(迎)(来)(挑)(战)(,不)(过)(,下)(次)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(的)(严)(重)(程)(度)(要)(弱)(于)(2008年)(。在)(达)(里)(奥)(看)(来)(,一)(般)(而)(言)(美)(联)(储)(应)(对)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(,需)(要)(将)(基)(准)(利)(率)(调)(降)(500个)(基)(点)(,但)(目)(前)(美)(联)(储)(还)(没)(有)(储)(备)(足)(够)(的)(“弹)(药)(”。可)(以)(预)(计)(的)(是)(,美)(联)(储)(有)(可)(能)(重)(启)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(政)(策)((QE)。
来)(源)(:经)(济)(参)(考)(报)(
END返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
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